"China would not seek to deploy land forces to the US (nor Australia for that matter). Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. I did not see anything like the same discontent in Australia. But it has always seemed to me that China, if it decides on military action to force "reunification"is more likely to mount a blockade than an invasion. "As Carl von Clausewitz noted [in his book On War], defence is the stronger form of war. 3-min read. "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". Are bills set to rise? And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. Wherever they start, they finish only when one side decides to give up. The People's Liberation Army is the military arm of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which oversees the PLA through its Central . Its military budget is greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. These are all Cold War allies of the US, but they have not had to think about war in the region since the 1970s. The Chinese government last week released a 12-point plan it devised to bring about an end to . The contemplation of war can only be justified after all other means of settling differences have failed, and we are a long way from reaching this position (over Taiwan)," he says. Mock attacks will no longer be fake. Those are easy targets. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. "They're aggressively expanding their influence," he said. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building capability and capacity "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". Chinas military build-up is making a difference. "Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. These waterways could be used to bottle up Chinese forces. "The question is really about a force-on-force comparison between China and the US. I am convinced that the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them. Yet if China wanted to conquer Taiwan, the outcome could be different. I think the US now accepts it may lose a conflict at least at the conventional level with China.. The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II President Franklin Roosevelts concept of America as the arsenal of democracy has withered and been surpassed by China. Then theres the sheer difficulty the United States would face waging war thousands of miles across the Pacific against an adversary that has the worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force. The United States has vital strategic interests at stake. All agree, for example, that the United States with or without Australias assistance cannot win a war against China. Tensions continue to simmer . A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. It has been growing by 6-8 per cent each year for the past five years but according to defence intelligence agency Janes, US spending remains miles ahead at $759 billion. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwans fate will be resolved. It has been since at least Monash's time. "It is not clear how formidable Taiwan'sdefences would prove to be in the face of a Chinese invasion. The decision to go to war would not require a public discussion. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific. everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. In 1947 with setting up of the United Nations, after the catastrophes of both world wars and the more limited wars in the intervening years, we tried to build a system of managing international relationships without the recourse to war. . March 11, 2021 Ryan Morgan Last fall, the U.S. Air Force played out a war scenario with China, in which China begins its attack by deploying a biological weapon throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The Bashi Channel connects the South China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. "China can impose huge costs on the US and perhaps indefinitely deny air control to the US in that zone. Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals. If China chooses to attack the island of Taiwan, the United States could be helpless to stop it. The Pentagons latest threat assessment found China has already achieved parity with or even exceeded the United States in several military modernisation areas, including ship building, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defence systems.. This means any idea of sustained operations within the Pacific-spanning reach of Chinas ballistic and cruise missiles is likely optimistic. Should a war break out around the South China Sea, the US would be under pressure to quickly neutralise the roughly 10 man-made islands China has created (seen as unsinkable aircraft carriers) to use as military bases. China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. Answer (1 of 34): I must assume Brian Greenhow is joking, but if he is not I must point out that wars aren't won by population numbers or imaginary 'allies', but by real Alliances, either historical or by treaty, and by technology, military hardware, political maneuvers, industry and money, lots . There are always a few possibilities that the right thing to do is to go to war irrespective of the expectation that we could 'win' whatever that means. "A cross-strait Invasion would involve a shaping phase to achieve air, land, sea, and cyber superiority. It is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear. Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. And a navy. "It would also have to be true that if any of the commentators were taken seriously the impact of this reality of preparing for war with China would now be affecting us all. And doesnt have the necessary reach. An F-16s normal operational radius is usually about 600km. Its army is now deploying troops to Africa for peacekeeping missions that give first-hand experience in conflict zones after decades of relative peace. They may withhold their offensive cyber power to prevent the US learning their operations. the outcome for the U.S. was not a good one, a new report revealed this week. In the event of a war: what would Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Australia do? "Nor can it rely on the US for resupply by sea once a conflict begins. Chinas grey zone strategy is designed to use fishing fleets to swarm disputed waters in the East and South China Sea, now supported by armed Chinese Coast Guard cutters leveraging their status as non-combatants to get in close and be able to overwhelm US Navy warship sensors and defence perimeters, former navy intelligence director James Fanell told US media. The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land. The Australian army is extremely careful to preserve the force-in-being by keeping casualties to a minimum. It runs between the Philippines and Taiwan. That means large paved airfields, humidity-controlled hangars and AI-enhanced maintenance equipment. Get a note direct from our foreign correspondents on whats making headlines around the world. China produces more ships, steel and smartphones than any other country and is a world leader in the production of chemicals, metals, heavy industrial equipment and electronics the basic building blocks of a military-industrial economy. "Now, as we approach reaching 10 billion people on earth, we see more difficult problems arising from this population burden. The war has exposed divisions within the G20 that go beyond Russia and China. China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. And they cannot be rearmed at sea. In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. "A big unknown is whether Japan would grant expanded rights to the US to use bases located on its territory, without itself joining the combat directly unless its territory is attacked. Some strategists even use an east-facing map with China at the bottom to show China as being encircled and needing to break out.. They have different opinions on a range of issues, but one thing that is striking about the four is what they agree on. "Specifically, China would probably favour four principal avenues for marginalising or defeating Australia. "I worry when politicians start to think it is acceptable to use the media to make threats about war. If that's what they mean, their view should be rejected in favour of Australian sovereignty and parliamentary authorisation.". "Melissa Conley Tyler and I (and others) have dealt with the Taiwan question in our joint paper. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. And Beijing has the advantage of geography. On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. And the operating distances are enormous. And the protagonists are testing each others resolve on an almost daily basis. "And oh, by the way, it's just going to get harder as we get further into the . "When the US closed down Bagram airbase in Afghanistan the Afghan Army collapsed. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. "A blockade means that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft will be unable to pass. "The military centre of gravity is China's integrated air defence system (IADS) in the south. Conflict over the island of Taiwan would be a disastrous experience for the peoples of the region, and its something that we should all work to avoid. Chinese control of Taiwan would also strengthen Beijings ability to control the South China Sea by blocking the Luzon Strait and the Balintang and Babuyan channels, Control of Taiwan would make it easier for the PLA to reach Guam using long-range missiles and air power, extending its anti-access capabilities beyond the first island chain.. The most immediate fight, however, appears to be centred on Taiwan. Confronting as that would be, perhaps more confronting is something many people do not realise: such a decision would not require any consultation in parliament. No doubt Australian passions would run high. This week, China suspended the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue a diplomatic mechanism for trade talksand accused Australia of "disrupt [ing] the normal exchanges and cooperation . While these have been costly, they also provided invaluable combat experience. It may turn out to be childs play compared with the havoc China could wreak on the American homeland in a war. Credit:Getty. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwan's fate will be resolved. The most probable spark is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Until then, it is important for Washington to avoid provocations and maintain a civil discourse with Beijing. Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at the moment, for Australians this surely is one of the most important discussions we must have. Hugh White, who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: "I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan." President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China must be achieved. His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong militarily, economically and industrially to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy. I draw here an important difference between politicians and statesmen. If there is going to be a war between Taiwan and China, we will fight the war ourselves, he said. But will it be safer for women? And that takes the issue of US-China military prowess back to the all-important issue of politics. And what would such a fight look like? "Even in Australia, with our record of setting up the basics of a rules-based order, governments have sometimes overlooked the provisions of the rules-based order, when it does not suit them. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. Korea was an unnecessary war, as were the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. For a second day in a row Taiwan has reported a large-scale air force incursion, escalating tensions in the region. US fighters can operate out of Guam with adequate air-to-air refuelling support, but the round-trip transit time for a sortie is about six hours.". It runs between the Japanese islands of Mikako and Okinawa. The US believes China has about 2000 mid-range missiles in place, which could ward off the US Navy in a conflict. That leaves its navy as its primary fighting force. And each one would require a heavy investment of equipment and lives to neutralise if they could be reached in the first place. "A China-US war over Taiwan would begin as an air-sea war, with China seeking to impose punitive costs on the US Navy and such US Air Force units as were able to operate. Humans have become a predatory species. There are debates today about how reform of the UN is needed to deal with contemporary security challenges but not much progress has been made. War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. "For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.. Six large amphibious vessels have been launched, three since 2015, and a third aircraft carrier, larger than its predecessors, will soon be completed. In a matter of minutes, Beijings Rocket Force could cripple Taiwans military, infrastructure and ports. The Pentagon's new report on the Chinese military suggests the effectiveness of the People's Liberation Army is less about numbers of missiles than in how they intellectually and organisationally prepare for war. No other country on the planet, save New Zealand, is better placed from a purely defensive perspective. He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". In its consequences, it would be profoundly and devastatingly different. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. Brooking Institutions Michael OHanlon writes that the location of Chinas new fleet of attack submarines could act as a deterrent to US military escalation. But Chinas been preparing to take and hold Taiwan by force for decades. What War with China Would Look Like, Part 2, will be published on Tuesdayand feature interviews with Allan Behm,former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department, and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. Its a problem long recognised by defence analysts and planners. The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. Which is why Beijing would be so determined to secure them. And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. To accept that argument as policy would mark the end of our strategic alliance with the US, leaving us more exposed to Chinese coercive pressure and political warfare, or even a direct military threat, Dr Davis says. "The bases in South Korea and Japan may not be available, and Guam may also be unavailable. Far fewer know their real story. The only truly reliable way to counter the threat would be to attack the submarines in port when they refuel and rearm, he writes. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. But the definition of ancestral territory appears to be changing rapidly. "But the prospect of war with China raises very different possibilities including for example, the significant likelihood that aircraft, ships and submarines we committed would be destroyed, with the potential for very high casualties among the crews. And the West may not be able to do much about it. Even by 2050 our 37 million people could not amount to much alongside countries having a population base of over 100 million people many of them in our region. Scenarios in which it would be right thing to do are few. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. "Australia should use all the means at its disposal to avert a war with China. "One can imagine the sociological fracture in Australia with funerals, commemorations, attacks on Australians of Chinese descent, the curtailing of any progressive economic reconstruction agenda for Australia.". Part 1. Russia's struggles in Ukraine are showing US special operators that they'll need to fight without their 'tethers' to win future wars. "I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. The 100,000-strong Rocket Force was made a separate branch of the Peoples Liberation Army in 2015. "In its causation, [war with China] would be no different from any of the wars Australia has participated in since World War II. It has additional radars and air defence weapons on outposts in the South China Sea, which extend its IADS zone out even further, although these latter systems can be destroyed by the US. mn commercial building code for stairs,