If Chinese coercion goes unchallenged by the United States, it will send a dangerous signal about the strength of the U.S. alliance system and lessen the appeal of the United States as a security partner. Washingtons relationship with Hanoi will make that more palatable. In the past two weeks, Filipino . Report Speaking to Anadolu Agency on Thursday, Bonji Ohara, a senior fellow at the Tokyo-based Sasakawa Peace Foundation, said the marginal sea is key to China's security. You can update your choices at any time in your settings. Not only Vietnam is the strongest opponent of the Chinese nine-dash line claim in the region, Vietnam's sustained economic growth has pushed it to emerge as an important player in the South East Asia, which China perceives is not in its interests. With the incoming administration likely to grapple early with South China Sea issues, the CSIS Southeast Asia Program, directed by Dr. Amy Searight, worked in collaboration with other Asia colleagues at CSISDr. Hence, the importance of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Second, the United States should feel comfortable adopting a patient approach in pushing a return to full democracy in Thailand. China has shown the most considerable increase in projection of power from all the states surrounding the SCS. The United States can do more to leverage its alliances in Asia to raise the costs of Chinese efforts to undermine the regional order. 2013 The Philippines challenges Chinas claims of historic rights and other actions in an arbitration case under the Law of the Sea Convention. The strategic value of the alliance remains high, according to theCongressional Research Service: *** U.S. The South China Sea (SCS) consists of over 200 tiny islands, reefs, shoals, atolls and sandbanks grouped in to 3 archipelagos the Spratlys, the Paracels and the Pratas Macclesfield Bank and Scarborough Shoal. But addressing the risks of its near seas means tackling the time-consuming and costly project of building, training and deploying a stronger blue-water navy while also establishing a greater . To that end, the region is . Center for Strategic and International Studies During the George W. Bush administration, U.S. forces in the Philippines were focused primarily on aiding the Philippine military in its counterterror fight. The growing size and capability of the Chinese air force, navy, and coast guard allow Beijing to consistently monitor and exercise de facto control over most of the South China Sea. The United States now has the opportunity to secure for another generation the peace that has held in Asia for nearly four decades now. Yet, due to Turkey's strategic importance, the US cannot afford to affront Mr. Erdogan, who carries a peculiar . through South China Sea Port is 1400 kms long. This concept of regional order links tightly to a broader set of interests, values, and institutions embodied in the post-World War II international system a system that reflects U.S. values, U.S. leadership and is consonant with U.S. interests. The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. Unfortunately, the allies now lack a shared strategic outlook, thus reducing the impetus to overcome recent bilateral political hurdles. Enduring U.S. interestsfreedom of navigation and overflight, support for the rules-based international order, and the peaceful resolution of disputesare at risk in the region. U.S. military advantage is of limited utility in this area and Washington has struggled to convince local partners to join in freedom of navigation operations. India will lose its current freedom of access into the South China Sea and much of Southeast Asia. This article aims to highlight security dynamics of the US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific associated with the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea through the prism of Balance of Threat Th. It was the first time that had ever occurred. Read more, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NWWashington, DC 20004-3027, 2023 The Wilson Center. More than 50% of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait over the islands and waters of the SCS amounting to around $5 trillion. All countries want positive economic and security ties with both China and the United States. To this end, the new administration should perform an early, top-down, and thorough strategic review to enable greater consistency and effectiveness in U.S. South China Sea policy. Due to the strategic importance of the area, China will continue to establish a maritime power in the SCS as the most dominant player among states in the region. The Obama administration has made modest gains in this regard, but it will be up for to the next president to seize that opportunity and ensure that Southeast Asias future is prosperous, peaceful and free. Importantly, American access to four airbases (with potentially more to be made available at a later date)especially those on Luzon and Palawanwill make U.S. air power resident in Southeast Asia. U.S. interests in the South China Sea fall into three broad categories including: (1) Economic interests tied to the sea-lanes; (2) Defense ties with allies and other security partners; and (3) Implications for the global balance of power and influence. We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. Learn more in our Cookie Policy. Rival countries have wrangled over territory in the South China Sea for centuries, but tension has steadily increased in recent years. director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative at Peking . The power politics, military interests created the South China Sea more important. China is working hard to bring under its control the water, islands, rocks and reefs that sit within its imaginary nine-dash line. The largest and most powerful of these . In addition, tensions have been raised with the Philippines after assertive Chinese naval patrols which they described as aggressive action. Anil Trigunayat, 5th Generation Warfare: A Real Global Warming (Alarming) and its Implications for Pakistan, The Geopolitics of Indo-Pacific: the Rise of India and the Possible Challenges for Pakistan, 75 Years of Pakistan's Independence: Audit of Achievements and Failures, Bacterial Attack on Azerbaijani Oil a fictitious scenario, Pakistan, from the Shackles of Oligarchy to the Emergence of Democracy, Impact of Climate Change on Flood-Stricken People in Balochistan, Dimensions of Religion: Use, Misuse and Beyond, Breaking Free from Fossil Fuels: Why Nuclear Energy is Significant for Pakistan, Artificial Intelligence in Higher Education and Scientific Research: an interview with Fatima Roumate, Dalits, the Bottom of Indias Caste Ladder. What is the strategic importance of the South China Sea. And thus a new strategic map of Asia begins to emerge. But the South China Sea has been dangerously overfished. In sum, the South China Sea is the immediate arena where two alternative geopolitical paradigms are contesting for supremacy. China has become increasingly assertive in the region, and regional powers from Japan to Singapore have become alarmed at China's behavior. Persistent American military presence at the eastern, southern and western points of the compassespecially when combined with regional states advancing ISR capabilities, for which the United States is providing investmentwould enable the United States to respond rapidly to incidents in disputed island chains or to Chinese attacks on U.S. and allied naval and air assets or on commercial shipping. First, the United States should feel more confident to pressure the junta on human rights concerns. Media Relations Manager, External Relations. The United States can stand firm on its principles and deter China from undermining the regional order while maintaining a productive relationship. Recent satellite analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows that Chinese fishing fleets are engaged in paramilitary work on behalf of the state rather than the commercial enterprise of fishing, the organization reported. In 1989 troops from the Peoples Liberation Army entered Tiananmen Square and terminated the student-led democracy demonstrations and hundreds died. In April, Australian Defence Force personnel joined the U.S.-Philippines Balikatan maneuvers, which included an amphibious landing exercise. Pressing Challenges to U.S. Army Acquisition: A Conversation with Hon. When it comes to trade, investment and infrastructure development, China should not be the only game in town. No other state in the region can match this increase in projection and rival China due to the economic differences. Most of China's contested land borders were remote areas with few people, natural resources or clear military utility. A third of the world's shipping passes through it, its fisheries are critical sources of food for millions of people. "American aircraft, this is the PLA air force. US still mired in a 'Cold War' mindset, but the tide's turning, The West is misreading Chinas Party Congress at the peril of world stability, Can Foreign Investors still have Good Reasons to be Optimistic about China? China, Russia and the Munich Security Conference. Talks are focused on articles that are relevant to disaster relief, but the agreements eventual parameters could expand as the U.S.-Vietnam security relationship matures. Current developments in the South China Sea must be understood against the backdrop of recent history. It remains entirely plausible that any Chinese strategy could have a long term goal of possessing the power to deny US or western warships access to the SCS, with China largely laying claim to most of the area as it's own waters. Figure 4 shows the overlapping sovereignty claims in the SCS, with Chinas claims according to the 9 dash line doctrine in red. Not taking a position on sovereignty allows the United States to flexibly intervene in the South China Sea to defend its interests and international rules and norms, while undercutting Chinese attempts to paint U.S. actions as a threat to Beijings sovereignty. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Because of its location, this sea is extremely strategic because it connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans (Strait of Malacca). - Interview with Ana Krstinovska, Russia's Growing Influence in the Middle East: an interview with Alexander Hoffmann, Serbia's Uneasy Balance Between Moscow and the EU: an interview with Suzana Grubjesic, Gulf States' Economic Momentum: an interview with Omar Al-Ubaydli, Prospects for Turkey-EU Relations Amid Tensions, Need to Cooperate and Lack of Trust: an interview with Nilgn Arsan Eralp, Germany's Shifting Stance in the Greek-Turkish Dispute: an interview with Ioannis P. Sotiropoulos, Bulgaria's Economic Perspectives amid Political Uncertainty and Challenges, Saudi Arabia's Reforms, Relations with the United States, and Choice of New Allies: an interview with David H. Rundell, Putin's Visit to Tehran: Results and Prospects, The Afghan Taliban Regime Amid Conflicting International Interests, The Resurgent Terrorist Threat in Pakistan: an interview with Tariq Parvez, The Complicated Upswing in U.S.-Pakistan Relations: an interview with Husain Haqqani, Pakistan-CARs ties: The Geo-Economic Vision, Neo-Petrodollar Romance: Implications and Options for Pakistan, India's Strategic Autonomy - Interview with Ambassador Rtn. Even if Beijings island-building campaign succeeds in turning the South China Sea into a Chinese lake, it will be one in which Chinese forces are constantly monitored and from which they can only depart with implicit American acquiescence. The strategic landscape of the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia in the early 1990s was remarkably benign with optimism in full flower. Does US-hegemonic decline translate into a fight between democracy and autocracy in maintaining a benign world order? These straws-in-the-wind gained strategic context because the PRC had long published official maps showing a boundary encompassing almost the entire South China Sea the nine-dash line.. The increasing activity of Beijing in the South China Sea, Consequences of US-China rivalry in Indo-Pacific and beyond, Balancing the giants: Australia between China and US. Coral reefs, which are vital to marine habitats, have been declining by 16 percent per decade, according to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Chinas significant increase in spending and capability of its maritime forces is of note. According to the U.S. State Department, it has been estimated that China is effectively blocking the development of $2.5 trillion worth of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea. In addition, this thesis intends to propose a solution to the dispute by pulling from a variety of sources. The U.S. militarys enhanced ability to loiter in and over the South China Sea, moreover, will facilitate more effective efforts to track Chinese submarines sailing from the PLANs underground naval base on Hainan island. Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs. The South China Sea has become important to the US because of China's challenge to the liberal rules-based order that America has promoted since the Pacific war. In addition to fishing grounds, the South China Sea contains an abundance of energy resources, . Burma, however, is a potential bright spot for the U.S. position in continental Southeast Asia. The Strategic Importance of the South China Sea (With reference to the geopolitical, economic, and military aspects) South China Sea is known as one of the most significant and dangerous cluster of Islands in the contemporary world. Those bases may be vulnerable, but before and at the outbreak of hostilities, they will allow China to project power deep into maritime Southeast Asia, to threaten commercial and military passage through the sea, and to impose and enforce an air defense identification zone. China, however, must now balance its continental concerns, which remain complex, against its new dependence on the maritime domain. The outcome of that contest will profoundly influence, if not shape, the 21st century world. "First, South China Sea is important for the strategic patrol of Chinese SSBN [nuclear ballistic missile submarine], which needs to enter west Pacific Ocean for its nuclear deterrence against the US," he explained. The annual Cobra Gold exercise is Asias largest multilateral military exercise. Utapao has been suggested as a permanent Southeast Asian Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) hub. China has tried to effectively annex the whole South China Sea region as its territorial waters, according to Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). It has deep ties with the military, which still dominates key parts of the government, and is a major player in the economy. It is little surprise, then, that Southeast Asian states are drawing closer to the United Statesboth seeking aid in developing their own defense capabilities and hoping that stronger ties act as a deterrent to Chinese assertiveness. Diplomatic, informational, legal, and economic responses are currently underrepresented in U.S. China policy, and their incorporation into the policy toolkit will be important for successfully dissuading China over the long-term. It is a rich source of hydrocarbons and natural resources. Douglas R. Bush, Deterring a Cross-Strait Conflict: Beijing's Assessment of Evolving U.S. Strategy, Rethinking Humanitarian Aid: A Conversation with Michelle Nunn, President and CEO of CARE USA, The South China Sea Some Fundamental Strategic Principles, Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, Diversity and Leadership in International Affairs Project, Energy Security and Climate Change Program. There are certainly other situations involving other challenges, but this is the most plausible and dangerous. The two major power of the world i.e. Walter Lohman hasdescribedCobra Gold as an achievement that has proved useful for military missions, such as joint patrols of vital sea lanes, and noncombat missions, such as disaster relief following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2008 Cyclone Nargis in Burma.. These actions suggest that China might undermine freedom of navigation and overflight, principles of fundamental importance to the United States. It can receive large aircraft (including C-17s and C-130s); it is close to a deep seaport; and it has infrastructure capable of handling command and control systems. Stay Connected! Figure 3 highlights the influenced areas. Whomever is elected to be the next American president, that person would be wise to have in place a Plan B should the TPP fail to pass the Senate this year (such a Plan B is admittedly unlikely, given that both major candidates would bear responsibility for its failure in the first place). U.S. leaders should not be afraid of tension in the U.S.-China relationship. The United States calls this treaty the Law of the Sea Convention.. African community leaders take home lessons from U.S. The South China Sea is basically China's export waterway to Africa and to Europe (among other markets), but in order for China's enemy (aspiring conqueror), America, to harm and weaken China maximally, and to use the United Nations assisting in that aggression, America and its allies have cast this vital trade-waterway as being instead basically just an area to be exploited for oil and gas . The 2022 Philippine Election: Trouble for Democracy and Foreign Relations Ahead? In addition to conventional concerns about territorial defense, the South China Sea is also important for China because of its nationalist claims to all of the tiny land . The two countries elevated bilateral ties to an extensive strategic partnership in 2013 and Japan is in the midst of donating to Vietnam six patrol vessels (for use by the coast guard and fisheries ministry). U.S. Navy/Handout[/caption]. However, there were a number of reasons to conclude that the line was no cartographic anomaly; it was an official indication of Beijings contention that the sovereign territory of China included the South China Sea. The region also is the subject of more than a dozen overlapping and interconnected disputes over who is in charge of the various islands, rocks, shoals and reefs scattered throughout the South China Sea waters. In December, another joint China-Russia naval exercise was held in the East China Sea (China Military Online, December 21, 2022). Firstly, the South China Sea is a prominent shipping passage with $5.3 trillion worth of . Seventh Fleet patrolled the regions seaways, including the South China Sea, unchallenged including agreed access to ports throughout much of the region. The United States also faces a challenge in enforcing international law in the South China Sea. 2023 Center for Strategic & International Studies. Conservation values protection of marine habitat against wanton, unnecessary despoliation are also essential. The United States should intensify capacity building efforts with allies and partners to improve their ability to resist Chinese coercion. All Rights Reserved. As maritime security such as safety and freedom of . LinkedIn and 3rd parties use essential and non-essential cookies to provide, secure, analyze and improve our Services, and to show you relevant ads (including professional and job ads) on and off LinkedIn. European access to Asia will be through Beijing. In 2016, they carried fully one-third of global shipping with an estimated value of $3.4 trillion. Islands in the South China Sea The islands of the South China Sea can be grouped into two island chains. South China Sea or even some part of its strategically significant zones will provide the sovereign nation state significant seat in global trade agreements. President Musharraf requested China to invest in this important strategic chokepoint in the Indian Ocean., to which China agreed. As the pivot of global economy continues to move east it is highly likely that 21st century geopolitics will continue to revolve around Asia and the SCS. WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump and his Vietnamese counterpart Nguyen Xuan Phuc said the disputed South China Sea has a strategic significance for the international community and any "unlawful" restriction on the freedom of the seas will destabilise peace in the Asia-Pacific region. In May, Australia and Singapore agreed to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. In the defense realm, the CSP paves the way for more bilateral military exercises, greater Singaporean access to Australian training facilities, enhanced intelligence-sharing arrangements and expanded people-to-people exchanges. Washington, DC 20036. In the contemporary era, Taiwan remains geographically at the intersection of most of East Asia's danger points. What is the Strategic Importance of the South China Sea? Hanoi and Canberra have launched a number of security dialogues and are expanding personnel exchanges, ship visits and officer training. The South China Sea is considered a "near sea" and its geographic proximity to the mainland is central to the China's strategic imagination and threat perception. In this article, let us look at the strategic importance of the South China Sea, History of the South China Sea Dispute, countries involved, causes, impacts, India's stand on the dispute and the way forward for the UPSC IAS Examination. Aung San Suu Kyi has no interest in antagonizing Chinawhich shares a border with Burma and is a major source of foreign investmentbut nor can she afford to alienate the United States or India. The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. 1994 The Convention on the Law of the Sea goes into effect. The USA have a direct connection to the area through various allies, connections and trade, and this will naturally continue. Since 2009, China has growingly asserted its influence over the SCS by enforcing an annual fishing ban, conducting regular maritime patrols, undertaking scientific surveys and conducting military exercises in the disputed islands and waters. What is more important from a strategic viewpoint, however, is that global energy projections that the EIA issues in the International Energy Outlook, issued in October 2021, make it clear that China and Asia will have a sharply growing dependence on MENA and Gulf petroleum exports that may well extend through 2050. In particular, shifting explanations for how the United States will manage Chinas rising power and influencealong with the military-heavy implementation of the rebalancehave exacerbated suspicions that Washington seeks to contain Beijings rise. It is highly likely that China will continue to upset regional stability in the SCS to expand its own sphere of influence. 5 min. By the mid-1990s, relations with Vietnam had begun a rapidly improvement. Ironically, the United States is drawing closer to communist Vietnam, in which human rights are serially abused, while growing apart from a major Vietnam War ally, largely due to concerns over democratic backsliding. Therefore, the SCS has geopolitical and geostrategic importance for the energy and economic security of China and East Asian countries; but also for the USA as $1.2 trillion of its trade moves through the waters. All this will occur in a region that is increasingly the vibrant center of the world economy. Importantly, the countries of maritime Southeast Asia are not aligning only with the United States, but with a grouping of external states concerned with the nature of Chinas rise. In . It is clear that increased maritime power projection in the SCS, from the Chinese in particular, has upset regional stability, and this is likely to continue. There were, however, cautionary signs for those prepared to see them. The United States needs to consider a wider variety of non-military responses to Chinas efforts to control the South China Sea, and more effectively build a local coalition to support these responses. TheSouth China Seais one of the most important economic and environmental regions in the world. China is already providing indications of how it might act when it controls the South China Sea. More importantly, it also covers the most crucial energy routes for East Asian countries to transport oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. The South China Sea (SCS) has great strategic and economic significance in the contemporary international politico-security environment. The United States has been less successful in supporting local partners as they resist Chinese coercion. With the National League for Democracy now in power in Naypyidaw, China cannot rely on Burma as an automatic ally. Beijing has also been careful to avoid estranging Aung San Suu Kyi and adopted a largely pragmatic approach to the countrys transition away from authoritarian rule. This new strategic map of Southeast Asia actually began to take shape during the Bush administration, whichinitially launchedthe effort to move beyond Americas traditional hub-and-spokes alliance model in the Asia-Pacific. Follow the Asia Program on Twitter @AsiaProgram. World. To counter Chinas efforts to control the South China Sea, the United States needs a sustainable strategy to bolster its own capabilities, work more effectively with capable allies and partners, and strengthen the regional order. The United States has been largely successful at preserving its own freedom of action and deterring outright Chinese aggression in the South China Sea through routine presence operations. Networking Social Entrepreneurship in Southeast Asia: Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative (YSEALI) program, The High Price of Neglecting Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy, Environmental Change and Security Program, North Korea International Documentation Project, Nuclear Proliferation International History Project, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, The Middle East and North Africa Workforce Development Initiative, Science and Technology Innovation Program, Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition. A U.S. Navy crewman aboard a P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft views a computer screen purportedly showing Chinese construction on the reclaimed land of Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in this still image from video provided by the United States Navy May 21, 2015. This segment will address American interests. Thats why the United States has urged countries to resolve maritime claim disputes peacefully and in accordance with international law. A new arrangement for U.S. naval access to Cam Ranh Bay may well be in the offing. Australia, for its part, has vocally supported U.S. freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea and may have quietly conducted its own in recent months. China remains uncompromising on sovereignty, has increased its capability to enforce its de facto control in disputed areas, and has sought to advance its claims while staying below the threshold for direct military conflict with the United States. Southeast Asia will inevitably be rendered subordinate and compliant to Chinas will. The most likely single scenario for a major military engagement against a great power adversary would be one against China centered on the South China Sea. MANILA - Major powers are wading deeper into the South China Sea in a series of moves that promise to rile China while answering US calls for like-minded nations to counter jointly Beijing's rising assertiveness in the crucial and contested maritime area. Thus, it is said that the South China Sea could be the battleground of World War III. Final Thoughts & Looking Towards the Future. The Art of War helps expose the motivation behind past, current, and future Chinese actions. Given these advantages, Washington can afford to focus on the long game in Asia, confident that Chinese adventurism is likely to push many states to turn to the United States for support. More and more, we see a particularly aggressive maritime stance from China towards NATO warships when exercising freedom of navigation through the SCS. Strategic Landscape of the South China Sea: While geopolitics indicates geographical relations with politics, there is another importance which is strategic. The United States, moreover, should work with its other Pacific alliesAustralia, South Korea and especially Japanto consider ways that they can lead efforts to expand infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia, perhaps by reforming and enlarging the Asian Development Bank or by launching a joint infrastructure investment fund. The Strategic Importance of the South China Sea. The United States can, if necessary, accept a continental Southeast Asia that leans China without major concern for Americas primary interests. Beijings moves have prompted Washington to counter Chinese assertiveness by forging a new strategic alignment in the regionone in which China dominates the South China Sea from the north, the United States and its partners do so from the east and west, and the states of continental Southeast Asia remain neutral or lean toward Beijing in the intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition. In order to understand the contention of the South China Sea and its significance, it is firstly imperative to understand the geopolitical importance of Asia, which has given rise to Chinese pre-eminence; enabling its rise to contemporary major political power on the global stage.