So its yet another week to reference performance in difficult, Major-like conditions when handicapping this event. LPGA pros hit 4-irons that total 180 yards; 5-irons 170; 6-irons 159; 7-irons 147; 8-irons 135; and 9-irons 123 yards. A look down the list of past champions illustrates a trend of above-average driving distance with total driving as a strength of their games. We know he is an elite iron player, he ranks No. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). So how did Casey do it? The. Players will not have a wedge in their hands too often, unless they have chosen to lay up out of the rough. It is highlighted by the big-three of Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. But, the fit is undeniable as the World No. Hes won here before at Bay Hill back in 2016, he just finished 5th at Scottsdale three weeks ago, hes won at Quail Hollow, took 11th at Congaree back in October, and last summer, before this transition really blossomed, he made the cut and finished 55th at Southern Hills in the PGA Championship. For my model inFantasy Nationalthis week, Im prioritizing SG: APP, SG: ARG, Prox 150+, Course & Comp Course History, and SG: T2G (Difficult Scoring Conditions) followed by a more balanced mix of Weighted Putting (Bermuda, Fast Greens), Driving Distance, P4: 450-500, Par 3: 200+, Par-5 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, and SG: T2G (L12 Rounds). Distance off the tee is never necessarily a disadvantage, but the actual driving distance is 16% lower than the average TOUR course at only 282.5 yards. When looking at the Top 26 players in the OWGR, 15 of them are priced shorter than 35-1 to win this week at Bay Hill. Let the right arm straighten in the downswing. That high Missed-Fairway percentage also correlates with one of the lowest Green-In-Regulation percentages on TOUR. One of the biggest problems that golfers have when it comes to distances is that they have difficulty finding an accurate number. The PGA Tour returns this week after Chris Kirk was able to hold off 34-year -old longshot rookie Eric Cole in a playoff. In his brief career, Ims had five Top 10 finishes in the state of Florida. Just four players rank in the top 30 in SG: ARG, Scrambling, and Sand Saves: Matsuyama, Todd, Robby Shelton, and JJ Spaun. Her 3-, 5- and 7-woods carry 195, 185 and 174 yards, respectively and total 218, 200 and 186 yards. Many players say they hit their seven iron 150 yards when in reality, it's 145 or 155. Long game shots (those starting over 100 yards from the hole) explain about two-thirds of the variability in scores among golfers on the PGA TOUR. Last year, the proximity buckets that ranked above TOUR average were 150-175 yards, 175-200 yards, and 200 yard plus. PGA Tour players of the early 21st century unquestionably hit the ball farther than throughout the 20th century. Eliminate the longest five and the shortest five, and then figure out the middle of the remaining group. However, imposes one of the most stern challenges on the PGA TOUR nonetheless. Between Scrambling, SG: Around The Green, and Sand Saves, Im looking to build around players who possess an imaginative, pressure-tested short game to find success on this course. Similar to the back-to-back designated events in Phoenix and Los Angeles just a few weeks ago, The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass is next week on the Tour schedule. So, we should expect some patience from players to battle for four tough days of golf. Last year, severe winds intervened over the weekend, creating a chaotic conclusion in which Scottie Scheffler edged past Viktor Hovland, Gary Woodland and Billy Horschel to claim his second career victory. Id also adjust for course difficulty and strength of field to get a measure of corrected proximity. And so I did. In terms of stats to de-prioritize when handicapping Genesis Invitational odds, all proximity stats frominside 150yards did not correlate with success at Riviera CC. Whether good or bad, we dont know how many more times well get to see Tiger play in a professional event, so I cant wait to see how he looks this week. That attracts the best players each year to compete and test their all around skillsets ahead of Major season. The average distance for a pitching wedge is 130 to 135 yards; for a sand wedge 115 to 120 yards; and for lob wedges 75 to 95 yards. Mashing those comp courses together, the top-10 players in SG: TOT are McIlroy, Morikawa, Zalatoris, Schauffele, Scheffler, Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm, Matsuyama, Thomas, and Keegan Bradley, illustrating a theme of predominantly regular Major contenders. But even then, the very best putters on Tour are averaging just over 80' of made putts per round. It's also why Scott talks a lot about how it's much easier to avoid making bogeys than it is to make birdies. Im sure in Tigers mind he believes he can take care of that unfinished business at age 47. Its also his first non-Major start since the 2020 ZOZO Championship. He has the short game to go along with it too, ranking 19th on Tour for Scrambling and 78th in SG Putting. It appears your browser may be outdated. The top-10 players in terms of Proximity 150+ are Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Cam Davis, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Tom Hoge, Justin Rose, Gary Woodland, and Sungjae Im. Lets also remember, he lost in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler last year at TPC Scottsdale, one of our correlated courses. That checks out considering hes gained strokes putting in 11 of his 14 career appearances. 1 in the field in terms of SG: T2G in comp conditions. PGA TOUR | The Honda Classic Chris Kirk birdied the first hole of a playoff to claim the fifth victory of his PGA TOUR career - and the third finish of T3 or better in his last four starts since putting the NEW Pro V1x golf ball in play to begin the season. We also see a substantial increase in the importance ofGood Drives GainedandSand Saves Gained. What is Jim Nantzs career lowlight? Let him tell you about adult film, Its f hard: Jon Rahm comes back to Earth at brutal Bay Hill. Though Mr. Palmer has passed on, the tinkering at Bay Hill continues. All three are strong fits for the course with proven past results and are expected to be the favorites when odds are released on Monday. pic.twitter.com/FnuG8URegM. All four par 3s are 200 yards or longer and that contributes heavily to so many of the approach shots here coming from 200 yards or more. That distinction (and his presence) adds more prestige to the tournament. Unfortunately, his odds are likely to open at about one-third of his 2022 price, so its hard to imagine McIlroy will end up on my betting card again this year. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. Cantlay challenged Rahm at the Genesis and here we are getting better than three times what the price is on Jon Rahm this week. 1 in Bogey Avoidance in comp conditions and Comp Course History. Harman ranks 21st in this field over the last 24 rounds on hard courses with long rough. having already secured his 2022/23 card with a stunning 50-foot birdie putt on the last hole of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship - enough to . The 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational follows the Sentry Tournament of Champions, WM Phoenix Open, and Genesis Invitational as the fourth Designated, Elevated event of the season, and third over the last four weeks. PGA Tour Average Proximity to Hole - Fairway (in yards) . The problem with the proximity stat is that it doesnt account for the initial distance of the approach. Open rough-length as the players see all season outside of the major championships. Ive broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings: For my model inFantasy Nationalthis week, Im prioritizing Bogey Avoidance (Difficult Conditions), Comp Course History, SG: APP, Prox 150-200, SG: T2G (Comp Conditions), and Good Drives Gained. Start the Golf Season off right with InsideGOLF ($100 value - just $20). Touts are lame. To receive GOLFs all-new newsletters,subscribe for free here. Its an eclectic group of bombers and short game specialists, but none come as much of a surprise. Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley had another place on the PGA Tour last week, when Sepp Straka finished T5th at 45/1. The biggest differences at this course compared to TOUR average come fromP5: 550-600andOpportunities Gained, which fall outside the top 10. The win foreshadowed better results later to come for Scheffler in Majors. Another week, another elevated event! The top 10 players in terms of weighted proximity from this range are Morikawa, Rahm, McIlroy, Young, Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim, Danny Lee, Justin Rose, and Justin Lower. PGA TOUR on Twitter: ". The Florida Swing is a cluttered stretch on the PGA TOUR schedule. 1 on Tour in Par 4 Scoring and 2nd in Par 5 Scoring. PLAYER PLOTS QUERY TOOL Approach Skill NEW Using strokes-gained, proximity, and GIR to break down approach skill across 6 yardage buckets. The wind at the Genesis Invitational today is absolutely insane!pic.twitter.com/TMz44EvdDq. Less than half their approach shots are ending up inside. But Tiger is nothing if not a competitor, so we should assume he wouldnt be accelerating his recovery time to enter this field if he himself didnt believe he could contend. Ten of the last 11 winners of this event ranked in the Top 55 on Tour in Proximity to the Hole from 200 or more yards. The opening hole is a downhill, 500-yard Par-5. (Im air-quoting the designation because it could just as easily be labeled a difficult par-4.) Instead,Bogey Avoidance, GIRs Gained, P4: 450-500,andSG: Short Gamemake the biggest jumps inside the top 10 at this event. He said he didn't think adding . Scroll to the bottom of this article to compare complete outright odds across legal U.S. sportsbooks. Scrambling GainedandSG: Short Gamemake the biggest jump compared to TOUR average, each falling inside the top 10. The PGA Tour organizes golf tournaments for amateur players throughout the world. Driving Accuracy specialists like Reavie, Kuchar, and Donald found their fair share of success here. Find the favorites in Florida this week with odds shorter than 20-1 here when sportsbooks open odds midday Monday. The stretching 7,466 yard, Par 72 features a set of tough par-4s, plus 3 of the par-5s measure over 555 yards. Just nine players rate out above average in each of the above top-10 stat categories for Bay Hill:Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Sungjae Im, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Jason Day, Tyrrell Hatton, andWill Zalatoris. If you want to bet on Tiger for the novelty of it, there is a non-zero chance he finds his way into the weekend through his short game alone. three appearances): Scott, Schauffele, Homa, Rahm, Hahn, Holmes, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Russell Henley, Alex Noren, KH Lee, Lanto Griffin, Scott Piercy, and Brian Harman. The fairways get narrower as you get closer to the green, encouraging even the longest hitters to take less than driver off the tee, and effectively removes wedge shots that would be more common on easier layouts. Having an accurate idea of your average distance for each of your clubs is extremely important. That changed on Thursday. With a loaded field in store and a trend of mid-tier players beyond 25-1 odds winning this event I dont have a single player in particular Im locked in to betting this week. Scott credited his repeated success at Riviera to his comfort on Poa greens. At Riviera CC, Im defining Comp Conditions as layouts that also feature narrow fairways, penal rough, and difficult all-around scoring. After the first hole, the two other par-5s and 315-yard par-4 10th are the only other holes to feature a scoring average below par. Im just saying, theres a chance he might not boat race this one! "On the PGA Tour, from 20 yards in the rough, when you have at least 10 yards of green to work with, [Tour pros] leave 50 percent of their shots outside of eight feet." Why the key to. GOLF.com and GOLF Magazine are published by EB GOLF MEDIA LLC, a division of 8AM GOLF. Weve seenMatt Everywin as often asTiger Woodssince 2010 (twice). He is 19th in Proximity to the Hole from 200 yards or greater. Players who excel on approach will give themselves scoring opportunities on a course where those are not exactly abundant. Get your FREE E-Book! pet friendly places for rent in edmonton alberta / jennifer nicholson mark norfleet / rory mcilroy pga tour career mode best attributes. Includes Fantasy TeamBuilder Piecing this together, Im looking to hone in on players who are above-average in SG: APP, Prox 150+, SG: ARG, SG: T2G (Difficult Conditions), Course & Comp Course History, and Total Weighted Putting. It is also worth noting that he is No. The PGA Tour, meanwhile, keeps a variety of statistics regarding the distances that players typically hit the ball with each club. This event shifted from an Open to an Invitational in 2020 when Woods took over as host. Riviera CC is a refreshing reminder that you can design a golf course to be challenging at just 7,300 yards. Holmes was 55th at 70.52 while Watson tied for 64th at 70.62. Previewing the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational with our top picks based on the best PGA Tour odds. He has contributed to a variety of national and local publications, specializing in sports writing. Copyright 2023 Leaf Group Ltd. / Leaf Group Media, All Rights Reserved. Hes still chasing his first career win at this event, but with three top-10 finishes over the last four years, its clear this layout is suited to his game. A pro player is also careful to note how far he can hit each club, so he knows which iron, wood or hybrid to pull from the bag during tournament play. Sensible results follow from sensible calculations. Are they right? John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. Notable veterans who have made no more than one prior appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational include Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, and Jordan Spieth. The biggest jump in importance at Bay Hill in terms of correlation with SG: TOT isSG: Short GameandSG: APP, which enter the top 10 of key stat categories this week. For the best website. Scoring on the par 5s is crucial to ones success at Bay Hill, as there arent a great deal of real birdie opportunities otherwise, but much like a major championship, the golf course will test all areas of ones game. Instead, the list of past champions back to tee it up includeMax Homa, Adam Scott, J.B. Holmes, and James Hahn. Zalatoris was battling injury back in the fall but his 4th place finish two weeks ago at the Genesis Invitational tells me he is back up to speed. Is Tiger going to win this event? Here's another general guideline for choosing the distance at which to play a golf course: Take your average 5-iron distance (be honest! Like TPC Scottsdale, Augusta National, and Harbour Town, Bay Hill is another course in which we see course form repeat itself over time, meaning players that have done well here in the past, tend to continually do so. Not many PGA Tour events these days feature 4 of rough plus green complexes that can run as firm as 12 on the stimpmeter if the elements allow. PGA Tour Victories: 16 Know your distances Looking at the charts can be intimidating. You dont need to grow out the rough or push tee boxes back to extreme lengths. To nobodys surprise, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy rank very high for me statistically this week but with their prices so short, Ive gone a little further down the board for my selections. The presence of these reachable par-4s and par-5s creates hidden distance in the rest of the course, which also includes three par-3s over 190 yards and six par-4s over 450 yards. Even they will struggle to hit a high percentage of fairways with the firm conditions, undulated runoffs, and intermittent pick ups in wind. Play the ball more up in your stance. Narrow fairways and tight doglegs make the course extremely challenging. On the other hand, it can also lower your expectations! The top-10 players in SG: APP entering this week are Tom Hoge, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Tom Kim, Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau, Mark Hubbard, and Shane Lowry. LPGA Tour player average distances: Driver, irons, wedges Driver: 230-290 yards 3-wood: 190-260 yards 3-iron: 185-215 yards 4-iron: 170-200 yards 5-iron: 160-190 yards 6-iron: 150-175. The Arnold Palmer Invitational has caused the highest percentage of penalty strokes in three of the last four years. Matsuyama has six top-20 finishes over the last two years between The Farmers, The Masters, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and U.S. Open at The Country Club. Be realistic about your abilities and don't go for a miracle shot that lands you in a water hazard or off the course. Some of the bigger names in this field that check that box are Gary. That means Arnold Palmer Invitational odds will include most of the best players in the world. Par 3, 4, 5 are more common with many golf courses but some courses include Par 6. This week however, it looks like it is back to normal for least a couple of the four days. This is the distance from the tee to the first bounce and does not include subsequent roll. 1 on Tour for par 5s with a birdie or better, he is 7th in this field over the last 36 rounds for SG Off the Tee, and his putting has really come around ranking 35th in this field over the last 36 rounds for SG Putting. Will Zalatoris is one of our expert's top picks this week. However, imposes one of the most stern challenges on the PGA TOUR nonetheless. Golf is hard and Tour highlights don't give a realistic idea just how hard it is. While we wont have a title defense to look forward to, unfortunately, Id say Woods return to competitive professional golf is a pretty decent consolation prize. All of those factors come under the assumption that play occurs on a calm day, which were not always promised. Looking at each of the last six winners, its notable that all six posted a Top-15 finish at this event prior to picking up their win. Scroll to the bottom of this article to compare complete API outright odds across legal U.S. sportsbooks. Nearing 7,500 yards, Bay Hill offers a high concentration of approaches from long range. They may again if they can play from the fairway and make up for it with elite Short Game. For the week, Casey's average proximity was 41 feet 11 inches. Hes missed the cut twice but hasnt finished worse than 21st in the eight other appearances, including three straight Top 10 finishes coming into this week. Note, he has a 10th place finish here at Bay Hill, a 17th in Scottsdale, and lost to Justin Thomas in a playoff at Southern Hills in the 2022 PGA Championship. After Quail Hollow, PGA National, Innisbrook Resort, and The Concession all share similar characteristics from the Florida region, while Muirfield Village has also offered a similarly stern test with its length, thick rough, and firm greens. For the 2019 season, the leaders in corrected proximity were Justin Thomas, Henrik Stenson and Viktor Hovland. But it was his putting that proved most consequential. The bottom of. February 16, 2023 2:36 pm ET. In. That said, players wont gain much on the field with a birdie start on 1. Ideally, the tour would like firm and fast fairways which would give 30 to 40 yards of roll out. In 2020,Tyrrell Hattonsurvived severely windy conditions with a Sunday 74 to post a -4, which edged him past Marc Leishman by one stroke to claim victory. This table shows how far the average golfer generally hits with each club when he or she makes solid contact. These firm and fast Poa greens also give players fits every year. And, like Novak, he's doing it nicely. Start the Golf Season off right with InsideGOLF ($100 value - just $20). The average PGA Tour pitching wedge shot carried 122 yards. That makes sense on a course that yields a high percentage of missed greens in regulation. After Scott, the rest of the top 10 in Event History includes: McIlroy, Rahm, Homa, Xander Schauffele, Luke Donald, Viktor Hovland, Justin Thomas, Aaron Baddeley, and Hideki Matsuyama. As an elevated event this time around in 2023, the purse will be among the highest of any non-Major event this season. Bryson DeChambeaus well-publicized attempt to drive the green over the water on the par-5 6th hole was a must-see moment in golf, and its a shame the 2021 champion cant be here to have another go at it. You can follow Kannon on Twitter at@LasVegasGolferand you can read below to see his favorite plays for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which kicks off Thursday at Bay Hill, in Orlando, Fla. Keep scrolling past Kannons picks, and youll also see data from Chirp,a free-to-play mobile platform andGOLF.comaffiliate that features a range of games with enticing prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to engage in the action without risking any money. Shot Scope have analysed their database of golfers to find out just how close golfers hit the ball from varying approach shots. For more coverage of the Darius Rucker Intercollegiate and NCAA and professional golf, visit golfchannel.com. Top 100 Courses in the U.S.: GOLFs all-new 2022-23 ranking is here! Rose has worked as a print and online journalist for more than 20 years. Find the favorites in Los Angeles this week with odds shorter than 20-1 here: With football season officially coming to a close, what a perfect stage it sets for golf to continue its momentum from the electric WM Phoenix Open. 1, 2, and 3 (Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Jon Rahm) highlight the field this week. Driver a long way, typically in the 290-yard range Nicklaus led the Tour in driving is., this course ranked as the ninth-hardest course on pga tour proximity to hole 50 yards PGA Tour average to. Posted Monday at 10:18 PM. Their full shot distances are longer. There are just eight players who rank top-40 in scoring from both hole ranges: Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Sungjae Im, Tom Hoge, Jason Day, and Aaron Baddeley. A par-68 layout measuring at over 7,600 yards and. This is a huge week forGood Drives Gained. In this field over the last 36 rounds, Day is 8th in SG Ball Striking, 11th in SG Approach, and 20th in SG Putting. To score around here, every facet of a player's game is tested to the maximum. On a calm day, Riviera presents one of the toughest challenges we see across golf. 9 could mean Players' first 600-yard hole Courses Golfweek's Best Courses Best You Can Play, state by state Top private courses, state by state Top 200 Resort Golf. Nearly 50% of those approaches come from between 150-200 yards. Yet he ranked 43rd in SG putting and, strikingly, 65th out of 70 players who made the cut in proximity to the hole (a measure of approach play). So 150 times 36 equals 5,400. The Country Club, Bethpage Black, Winged Foot, Torrey Pines (South), The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, and Augusta National all serve as strong comps to simulate scoring in difficult conditions. Most of the recent difficult scoring venues like TPC Potomac, The Country Club, Southern Hills, Torrey Pines (South), Innisbrook (Copperhead), and Bay Hill should serve as strong comps to simulate the all-around tee-to-green game required to contend.