", Data in More than 5 years is amalgamation of 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years, Question asked was "Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year? Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. What has happened to the once-great British Airways? and given the options of "Yes" and "No". In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote . In terms of translating these election poll findings into a projected make up of the current House of Commons, Politics.co.uk has used the Butler method to calculate the current swing between the parties compared to the 2019 General Election. And 50% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 would now vote for Labour, up from 27% at the start of this week. The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll, conducted a fortnight after Rishi Sunak became prime minister, shows Labour maintaining a significant lead over the Conservatives. What next for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour left? Pollster. Voting intention in the United Kingdom 2017-2023. YouGov: The Times: GB 2,003 23% 46%: 9% 4% 7% 8% 3%. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. Under this unlikely but not impossible scenario, the Electoral Calculus seat predictor says Labour would end up with 37 Scottish MPs, the SNP would have 10, the Tories seven and the Lib Dems five. YouGov Westminster voting intention If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Scottish Opinion Polls Recent Scottish opinion polls. We only ask you to donate what you can afford, with an option to cancel your subscription at any point. Britain Elects. Automotive. Polling includes only those that explicitly ask how the responder would vote in a hypothetical referendum on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union, rather than repeating the remain/leave question of the 2016 referendum. Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament. Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided. Indeed Conservative support appeared to have grown slightly after Rishi Sunaks October 2021 budget. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polling returns, including the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, the Covid pandemic in Scotland and party leadership changes. These levels peaked at just under 40% in the late 1980s, the time that the poll tax was introduced a year early in Scotland by the UK government. Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. Keir Starmer has finally found his Clause IV moment. In late February 2022, and prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there were some tentative signs that the Conservative position had recovered slightly from its early 2022 lows. Published by Statista Research Department , Feb 15, 2023. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Scottish independence. 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State of the Nation. Since you are here, we wanted to ask for your help. Stay informed. A band of rain, sleet and snow is expected to move south during Monday followed by frequent snow and hail showers, Ken Bruce leaves BBC with veiled jibe after they ended his show early over concerns was free advertising for a rival, The 72-year-old Glaswegian left Radio to join Greatest Hits Radio in April after the Beeb told him to step down 17 days early, Teaching strikes held off as union on brink of striking pay deal. In 2022, the level of people polled citing dont know has fluctuated around the 5%-8% level. This is the same constant level of dont knows that has been seen in most polls over the last 5 years. Support for Scottish independence nudged up to 50% for the first time in 2019, soon after Boris Johnson became prime minister. 4th October 2022| Only 44 per cent of those most likely to back the SNP said the same. And while 33 per cent said the UK Government was wrong to have blocked the bill, 50 per cent said it was right or within its rights to do so. However, coinciding with the roll out of the coronavirus vaccine and the conclusion of Boris Johnsons Brexit deal at the end of 2020, the Conservative party once again opened up a significant election poll lead over Labour. Latest news on Scottish Opinion Polls, including political opinion polls, voting intention polls, and opinion poll analysis. Coming into the autumn, the Conservatives appeared to have suffered no adverse polling impacts from either their proposed rise in national insurance, or the autumn fuel shortages. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems have 9 per cent of the vote (-1), but could be well placed to pick up vital seats in the Blue Wall, where voters would sooner pinch their nose and vote amber over red. New projections based on YouGov polling suggest the Conservative Party could be reduced to the UKs fourth-biggest party at the next election. Support for Welsh independence has fallen back to its lowest level in three years, a St David's Day poll for Wales carried out by pollsters YouGov has shown. Most polling companies listed here are members of the . conducted. In the aftermath of the 2019 General Election, the Conservative party enjoyed a healthy lead in the opinion polls. Stay informed. @BritainElects. Our current polling average is based on polls by Savanta ComRes (fieldwork completed May 4). In all polls the dont knows are removed. Poll reveals impact of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation on voting and independence. This compares with the position in the 2014 Independence referendum, when 55.3% of Scottish voters opposed plans for an Independent Scotland, with 44.7% voting in favour. This lead was trending at around 8% at the point that Liz Truss became prime minister in September 2022. Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats have 9% of the vote (no change), while the Greens have 7% (-1) and Reform UK have 3% of the vote (no change). At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. The headline data used in calculating these averages has been drawn from that laid out in the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Opinium, Survation, SavantaComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Techne, Delta Poll,and Ipsos Mori. YouGov: 24 Apr 2020 - 27 Apr 2020: 1,095: 25: 15: 6 : 2: 51; Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland: 01 May 2020 - 05 May 2020: 1,086: 26: 17: 5 : 2: 50; Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop: Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given. They do not factor in the potential for further additional regional or constituency centric swings. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeons approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. Politics.co.uks current Westminster projections are also drawn through an aggregate extrapolation of the data on election polls. The majority of people believe that a doctors approval should be needed for a person to change their sex in law. It found that the yes vote was ahead in only one age group, amongst 25-to-39-year-olds, while in all others no. NewsNow aims to be the world's most accurate and comprehensive aggregator of news about Scotland opinion polls, which are carried out by various polling companies, including members of the British Polling Council (BPC), such as YouGov, Ipsos MORI, and Survation. Labour scalps would include Tommy Sheppard, Angus MacNeil, Douglas Chapman and Stewart McDonald. The poll was conducted for The Sunday Times over the past week as a review for the Scottish Prison Service found that the process of admitting transgender people to prisons should be improved in the wake of the Isla Bryson case. The above analysis of general election polls has been calculated through linear average equation modelling of the latest UK opinion polls of Westminster voting intention. Speaking on BBC Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme, Nicola Sturgeon said her aim at May's Holyrood election was winning a . However, it follows two other polls published in the last 48-hours that have put Labour well ahead of the Tories. In Wales, Plaid Cymru is currently on course to lose one seat to Labour. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? This page will bring you the latest breaking headlines, and updates automatically and continuously 24/7. Inside Labour's battle to retake Scotland as party warned not to 'count chickens too soon', Public mental health is the true measure of political success. Education. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. . Most Recent Independence Poll, YouGov 17th - 20th of February 2023 No Yes Don't Know Headline Excluding Don't Knows 49% (+1) 54% (+1 / -1) 42% (nc) 46% (-1 / +1) 9% (-2) By-Elections By-elections By-Election Result: Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone February 27, 2023 Comments Off The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) - this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. ", Nicola Sturgeon claims no laws were broken during ferry contract scandal, SNP's 'politics of division' does 'not change' people's lives, says Anas Sarwar, The SNP benches will be a LOT quieter in future according to these new polls. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeon's approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. Again, the Scottish sample is even small (103 out of 993 once don't knows are removed) but the survey puts Labour in the lead north of the Border on 40 per cent of the vote. Rather than experience a new prime ministerial bounce, in September 2022, the picture was not positive for Liz Truss. We are sorry, but the email address you entered does not appear to be valid. Scottish Independence Poll Methodology: The above analysis of support for Scottish independence draws from the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Survation, ComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Panelbase, Detlapoll, Opinium and IpsosMori. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Scottish independence. In early 2023, the No campaign had already regained an opinion poll lead, doing so at a time that coincided with the discussions about trans gender rights in the Scottish Parliament, and with the UK government subsequently invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act for the first time in relation to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. This once again reaffirms how sleaze and scandal remain the most potent political weapons in British politics, ones which can quickly and easily cut through to voters. He is the co-founder of poll aggregator Britain Elects. A survey for YouGov gives the SNP a vote share of 36 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 with the Lib Dems just ahead of the Greens on seven and five per cent respectively. The latest monthly polling averages on Scottish independence show No campaigners to have consolidated their lead in the polls once again. July 9, 2020 YouGov poll reveals vast majority (93%) of Brits don't wear real animal fur and do support a #FurFreeBritain; Government urged to end UK fur sales RT-Images/iStock.com Red fox lying in leaves LONDONBritish citizens overwhelmingly agree that the time has come for Britain to be fur-free. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". We will not share your email address with any third parties. The latest voting intention survey puts Labour a whopping 28 points ahead of the Tories, with Rishi Sunaks party flirting with sub-20 numbers in what would be a historic low.