The data firm Hawkfish, which was founded by former New York mayor and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg, recently studied these scenarios and is warning the public about what they call the "red mirage." (Bloomberg now supports Biden, and Hawkfish is working for pro-Biden super PACs.) A screenshot from an episode of Axios on HBO detailing the "Red Mirage" theory. Some people call this the "blue mirage" or the "red shift." The article presented a right-wing narrative regarding what political data firm Hawfish this week called a "red mirage"—election night results which could give the appearance of a Trump victory before mail-in ballots have been tallied. The most important map to watch on Election Night is one that shows when each state starts counting its early ballots. A Democratic analytics firm warns Axios of what it calls a "red mirage" on Nov. 3. Wylie.) In a report released Tuesday, Hawkfish, a Democratic-aligned data and technology firm founded by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, warned of a "red mirage" on election night … With scarcely two months left before Nov. 3, a respected Democratic data-analytics firm tells Axios that “it’s highly likely that President Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when all the votes are counted.” The night began with a wave of Trump red crashing across the coasts of Florida, hit by a crosscurrent from the West that buoyed the Joseph R. Biden Jr. campaign, forming a … “When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after Election Day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was exactly that, a mirage,” Mendelsohn said. Forget the red and blue election map. (Polling averages since then have shifted only slightly, so the model is still instructive.) The night began with a wave of Trump red crashing across the coasts of Florida, hit by a crosscurrent from the West that buoyed the Joseph R. Biden Jr. campaign, forming a … "We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump," he said. President Trump, who appears to be surging in the polls, will be in the lead on Election Night, but that’s just a “red mirage,” according to Josh Mendelsohn, the CEO of a … So we are all going to be in suspense for a week? The lesson: it will be easier than ever for initial vote tallies to lead untrained eyes astray. Now I suppose if Trump and Biden and Harris and the Democrats and Since many states will allow ballots postmarked by Election Day to count, the results could shift in Biden's direction slowly over the course of several days as mail-in ballots are processed. The "Red Mirage" and Other Election Night Coverage Catastrophes. Election night 2020 was an election night like no other — and not just because the “night” ended up lasting four days. The Red Mirage theory, that Trump will have a significant lead on Election Night, but will lose when mail-in ballots are counted, is the excuse for Democrats to spend weeks trying to count ballots in Democrat areas that arrive late or that don’t comply with the rules, and to disqualify valid ballots in Republican areas. When the Democratic Party comes up with a narrative that it wants to push, it can always rely on supporters in the leftist media to promote the partisan talking points. Though a red mirage may only last a day or two, it could be enough for Trump to persuade the country that what it sees, based on the familiar fiction of election night, is the full story. Share. Beware the "blue mirage" and the "red mirage" on election night. 'Red mirage': Democrat firm warns mail-in ballots may create false Trump landslide illusion on election night Unfortunately, circumstances are such that we might well face a confused and chaotic situation on election night that he can, and undoubtedly will, exploit to his advantage. Again, viewers should be prepared for a blue mirage followed by a red swing—but there is a good chance that, unless the margin is razor-thin, we’ll get a call in Florida on Election Night. Download. Red Mirage. : “We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump,” Mendelsohn said. Yet another invented term for the MSM To repeat over and over, convincing the lemmings that a "red mirage" in elections is an actual, real thing. B race yourselves, anxious Democrats: things could look very ugly as vote-counting begins on Election Day. Those who want to dismiss the red mirage scenario of an early Trump victory claim on Election Night attributable to a big partisan tilt in voting methods have … The “Red Mirage” referenced by Clark refers to a very real possibility that election results coming in on Nov. 3 make it look like Trump is leading Democrat Joe Biden, or at least doing better than polls predicted. "Yes, it An Election Night ‘Red Mirage’ Is a Nightmare for Democrats But in the overnight hours as ballots were counted, Biden would slowly take the lead so that by morning, Biden would On election night, Trump would appear to be well on his way victory. For example: In one scenario, Trump could be up 408-130 in electoral votes with 15% of the mail ballots counted on election night. I can just hear my Democrat relatives now. If it is postmarked on election day (Tuesday) 80% will not arrive until Friday, but some won't arrive until the following Monday. A blue mirage is not expected to last long in either state. Experts say they expect Florida and North Carolina to finish counting most of their mail-in and in-person ballots before the end of the night. In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, mail-in ballots cannot be counted until Election Day. Deciphering the 'red mirage,' the 'blue shift,' and the uncertainty surrounding election results this November By Marshall Cohen Updated 6:49 PM ET, Tue September 1, 2020 In one modeling outcome, Trump could see a projected 408 electoral votes on election night… Red Mirage is based on the premise that Trump will appear to have won on Election Night, perhaps in a landslide. “We believe that on Election Night, we are going to see Donald Trump in a stronger position than the reality actually is,” Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsohn said, calling the phenomenon a “red mirage.” With President Donald Trump consistently trying to sow doubt around this year's US general-election results, a data firm that works with Democrats is … “We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump,” he said. Beware the 'blue mirage' and the 'red mirage' on election night Analysis: Don't fall for what could be misleading early numbers or punditry. It is the speculation of the article that these will favor Biden, hence Trump's apparent victory on Election night will have been a "mirage." Delays in tallying mail-in votes could lead to a “red mirage” on November 3, in which it appears Trump won handily and provides him an opportunity to dismiss later results as “rigged.” Election night results may be a ‘red mirage’ Trump is laying the groundwork for challenging the results of the November elections if the results do not go his way. A "red mirage" on election night and a post-election "blue shift" could lead to an unprecedented constitutional crisis just as the Supreme Court is in turmoil. President Trump’s substantial lead in votes counted on election night — and his willingness to use that lead to falsely claim victory — did not surprise the American public, thanks in part to Hawkfish. Those who want to dismiss the red mirage scenario of an early Trump victory claim on Election Night attributable to a big partisan tilt in voting methods have … Not only could Pennsylvania be undecided on Tuesday night, it could be an example of what some people are calling the "red mirage," an impression that Donald Trump is … However, he could lose when all the votes were eventually counted. In those states, a "red mirage" of Trump-heavy Election Day votes could linger until larger metro counties report huge tranches of early ballots later in the evening. A. R. This is when the first waves of results disproportionately favor Biden, only to be followed by more Trump-friendly ballots later on. Voting experts are warning people to be aware of a red or blue mirage in early results as they could be misleading than the final outcome. The Trump Donald Trump claims prediction of 'red mirage' giving him a landslide election night victory only for mail-in ballots to hand the White House to Joe Biden days later would be proof of … Be patient until more votes are counted. Early results that pop up shortly after the polls close might look very different from the final outcome, because of unprecedented levels of mail-in ballots and early voting due to the coronavirus pandemic. How to spot a red or blue 'mirage' in early election night results Election night will be an unusual experience this year. US election 2020 results: Why Trump’s lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania collapsed For most of election night, Donald Trump had huge leads in … Though a red mirage may only last a day or two, it could be enough for Trump to persuade the country that what it sees, based on the familiar fiction of election night, is the full story. The issue (as has been pointed out) is not votes mailed after election day but rather the fact that in most states (at least that I'm aware of) the mail in vote counting doesn't start until the polls close. What is the “red mirage”? With the election night landscape changing for 2020, we offer the following seven pointers, aimed at the public and media alike, for an informed, and informative, viewing of the election results. Dave Wasserman Nov 03, 2020 4:00 PM ET. Wednesday, September 2, 2020 Democrat Operative Warns of ‘Red Mirage’ Landslide for DJT on Election Night Would it surprise anyone that a Democrat operative is predicting that Joe Biden will win the presidency.....only days later and after all the mail-in ballots get counted? Facebook will weed out “false victory” claims as part of Red Mirage Plot Mark Zuckerburg says Facebook will weed out “false victory” claims during the presidential election, which will give Democrats the opportunity to keep President Trump from claiming victory while they count more mail-in “ballots” that will, of course, swing the election to Biden. Some people call this the “red mirage” or the “blue shift,” where early results favor Trump but later ballots even things out and might even put Biden ahead once all the results are tallied. A little-covered June special election for a congressional seat in the Buffalo, New York, area offered a preview of what a "red mirage" could look like. "We believe that on election night, we are going to see Donald Trump in a stronger position than [he] actually is," Mendelsohn said, calling this phenomenon a "red mirage." A "red mirage." While Michigan did recently pass a … The most important map to watch on Election Night is one that shows when each state starts counting its early ballots. RED MIRAGE IN THE RUST BELT In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, mail-in ballots cannot be counted until Election Day. According to his company’s number-crunching, Trump will win in a landslide on election night. (As a reader pointed out, The Red Mirage is also the title of a novel by I. Shaped the 2020 Election Narrative. Experts are warning we'll see a "red mirage" in some states, and a "blue mirage" in others. The red mirage is the temporary advantage that Republicans appear to have during the brief window between when a state has counted all of its … It is … Current and former Pennsylvania officials and activists say that the antidote to the “red mirage” is as simple as the scenario itself. The Red Mirage theory, that Trump will have a significant lead on Election Night, but will lose when mail-in ballots are counted, is the excuse for Democrats to … Facebook Joins “Red Mirage” Plot: Won’t Allow “False Victory” Claims From Trump on Election Night Sep 3, 2020 by News Wars This allows time for mail-in “ballots” to swing election … The likely confusion, chaos and charges of election fraud created by a Red Mirage will undoubtedly be maliciously amped by Trump among his low- and uninformed voters. The “red mirage” was explained like this. This election was also unique because of … 1. But among Democrats, fear of a “Red Mirage The "mirage" being red means that Trump will appear to have won on election night, but will lose in the days following when a stream of mail-in votes for Biden either arrive late in the mails and still are counted or else are obtained One of the Hawkfish model’s scenarios, based on polling averages reported by FiveThirtyEightin August, is shown below. ( Axios ) Forget the red and blue election map. The possibility of Donald Trump declaring a premature victory on Election Night necessitates a look back at the contested election of 1876 and the compromise that settled it … Mendelsohn said he is "sounding the alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump." Similarly, in Minnesota, there might be a "red mirage" that misleadingly looks like a Trump lead. This problem is known as "the red mirage." STARTED BY MICHAEL BLOOMBERG, DOES WORK FOR THE DNC AND A STARTED BY MICHAEL BLOOMBERG, DOES WORK FOR THE DNC AND A BIDEN SUPER PAC EXPLAINING WHAT HE CALLS A RED MIRAGE HE THINKS WE WILL SEE BEFORE US ON ELECTION NIGHT. An Election Night ‘Red Mirage’ Is a Nightmare for Democrats Cost of flood damage to U.S. homes will increase by 61% in 30 years Pace of US vaccinations has slowed, hampered by snow and power outages The Case for Wearing a Mask and Voting In Person In battleground states, vote by mail could contribute to Trump’s “red mirage” lead on election night. How annoying. He found that Democratic Just imagine Nov 4, election night is over but no one knows what to think because there are so many mail in ballots that you can't actually say who won yet. This problem is known as "the red mirage." Here's why those first vote totals may be pretty misleading on Tuesday night. The left and its media allies are warning Americans not to expect a winner on election night. It projects that early in the evening, as Election Day voting results are announced, it would appear that Trump was winning with Share this on Facebook (Opens in a new window) Share this on Twitter (Opens in a new window) Share this via Email. This shift has been called the “red mirage,” the perception on election night that Trump is winning because the heavily pro-Biden votes haven’t yet been counted. Hawkfish, the political data agency funded by Michael Bloomberg, is predicting “chaos” as the presidential election votes are tallied, Axios reports. Trump’s voters are more likely to vote on Election Day, so their votes may be counted quicker. Known as the “red mirage”, the scenario could develop if Trump appears to be leading in the presidential race late on election night and declares victory before all the votes are counted. When counties reported results from Election Day polling places that night, Republican Chris Jacobs led Democrat Nate McMurray 68 percent to 30 percent. The Red Mirage theory, that Trump will have a significant lead on Election Night, but will lose when mail-in ballots are counted, is the excuse for Democrats to … In American politics, a blue shift, also called a red mirage, is an observed phenomenon under which counts of in-person votes are more likely than overall vote counts to be for the Republican Party (whose party color is red), while provisional votes or absentee ballots, which are often counted later, are more likely than overall vote counts to be for the Democratic Party (whose color is blue). What they're saying: Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsohn calls the scenario a "red mirage." How to spot a red or blue 'mirage' in early election night results By Marshall Cohen, CNN Posted Oct 30, 2020 Posted Oct 30, 2020 0 Facebook Twitter WhatsApp SMS Email Election night … The phenomenon was first identified by Edward Foley of Ohio State University in 2013. Since many states will allow ballots postmarked by Election Day to count, the results could shift in Biden's direction slowly over the course of several days as mail-in ballots are processed. Landslide alert? "When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after Election Day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was exactly that, a mirage. JOSH MENDOLSOHN, CEO OF HAWKFISH ...POLITICAL DATA AND TECH FIRM THAT DOES COMPUTER MODELING OF ELECTION TRENDS.
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